Extreme weather events will continue to trigger disinformation. False claims, conspiracy theories, and AI-generated content are expected to surge, driven by political and technological shifts in the United States.
Global Witness, an international NGO, predicts climate disinformation will become more urgent than ever this year, based on trends observed in 2024, related to weather events such as Hurricane Helene or the Los Angeles wildfires.
The new US administration’s hostility to climate action coincides with the growing profitability of climate denial. Platforms such as Google and Meta facilitated significant revenue generation for various sites, despite their policies against climate denial ads.
With Meta ending fact-checking in the US, and fewer content moderation safeguards, climate misinformation is set to thrive, especially as generative AI makes false content easier to produce.
Climate defenders vilified
Additionally, disinformation is being weaponised against climate defenders. Before COP29, a network of suspicious accounts promoted Azerbaijan’s government messaging, distracting from its environmental and human rights record.
Similar tactics could be used at COP30 hosted by Brazil, predicts Global Witness, with agribusinesses spreading misleading narratives and Indigenous communities facing harassment and false accusations.
An analysis by The Conversation, a network of nonprofit media outlets, raises the same issue. Accusations of geoengineering or “green terrorists” causing fires, which fuel confusion, hinder disaster responses and reinforce climate change denialism.
These narratives, often politically driven, depict climate action as an elite agenda meant to suppress ordinary people, deepening ideological divisions and eroding trust in science and institutions.
But Global Witness argues that this future is not inevitable. The European Union’s Digital Services Act holds platforms accountable for managing disinformation, and strict enforcement is necessary to prevent harm.
Europeans aware
According to a debate co-hosted by the Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP) and the Trans-European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA) with citizens from 7 EU Member States, Europeans are aware of the issue.
83 per cent of the attendees think climate change is targeted a lot by disinformation, compared to 18 per cent who do not think the same. 81 per cent believe it is possible to combat climate disinfo, while only 19 per cent disagree with the statement.
Nonprofits and governments are the most trusted among citizens to provide accurate information about climate change. Governments, most of all the EU, should take the lead in acting against climate disinfo, according to the report.
The Conversation analysis calls for the same, urging governments to take stronger action. Digital literacy initiatives are crucial, argue researchers, encouraging users to verify sources, cross-check information, and remain sceptical of emotional appeals.
Poland alarmed
Nevertheless, the situation within the EU is not calm, and the villain is the same: Russia. After intending to cause mayhem in the upcoming German elections, it was found to have waged a “long-term cognitive war” in Poland, using climate disinformation.
The findings come out of a report by the Commission for the Study of Russian and Belarusian Influence, established by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, to review the impact of these two states on Polish public life from 2004 to 2024.
According to the report, the campaign aims to deepen social divisions, erode trust in democratic institutions, and weaken the West.
Key narratives include portraying NATO and the EU as oppressive forces, depicting Western civilisation as decadent.
Russian propaganda also spreads conspiracy theories and pseudoscience, such as disinformation about vaccines and 5G networks, further eroding public trust. It also claims that Russia is winning the war in Ukraine, insisting that Ukraine is a failed state.
Cognitive warfare is a key part of Russia’s military strategy, with an estimated annual budget of $2-4 billion. Russian intelligence and armed forces systematically spread disinformation to influence Polish public opinion, politics, and the economy.
The Commission criticises the Polish government’s inaction despite having intelligence on individuals and institutions spreading Russian and Belarusian disinformation, weakening Poland’s ability to detect and counter information warfare.
The report calls for a national strategy to combat disinformation, involving experts, journalists, and civil society organisations. Increasing public funding for countering disinfo is essential, concludes the Commission.
[Edited By Brian Maguire | Euractiv’s Advocacy Lab ]
